The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) latest order on unsecured loans is set to hit the banking sector's growth in the near-term, cautioned analysts, as they see banks slowing down on aggressive retail lending. Besides, cost of funds for non-banking finance companies (NBFC) is expected to inch up as banks will pass on higher capital charge to NBFCs. "We believe the fallout of the RBI action will be mainly on growth, given the rising dependence on unsecured retail loans and lending to NBFCs for growth.
The Reserve Bank of India's latest order prohibiting Bajaj Finance from sanctioning and disbursing loans under its 'eCOM' and 'Insta EMI Card' products may not have serious implications on the non-banking finance company's profitability, provided the ban is lifted within six to eight weeks, analysts said. "In a surprise move, the RBI has asked Bajaj Finance to stop sanction and disbursal under two of its digital lending products. "While the move is negative, the speed of correction will be key to reinstate products," global brokerage Jefferies said in a report.
The board of Religare Enterprises Ltd (REL) has rallied behind its embattled chairperson Rashmi Saluja, saying she had turned around the financial services company whose market cap has increased to about a billion dollars from under $100 million in March 2018. The board -- which is fending off an Rs 2,200 crore open offer by the Burman family -- said accusations had not only targeted Saluja but the entire Religare management that has made Religare debt free. "Our story has been one of resurgence under the guidance of the Board of Directors led by Saluja, executive chairman.
The Burman family, which runs Dabur Group, has denied any involvement or role in an illegal cricket-betting app as alleged by the Mumbai police in a complaint filed last week. The family said vested interests were behind the police complaint and they wanted to scuttle their (Dabur's) move to acquire Religare Enterprises, a financial services company. "We have not received any formal communication on any such FIR
''The outcome of the state polls may lead to some strategy-related permutations and combinations and the markets may extrapolate it to the likely outcome in the general elections.'
Vedanta Resources (VRL), the diversified mining company headquartered in London, is giving final touches to a plan to raise up to $2.5 billion (about Rs 20,800 crore) as debt repayment deadlines near. The company owned by billionaire Anil Agarwal plans to do this by a combination of instruments, including issuing preference shares in the holding company to a slew of offshore investors from West Asia, and taking on another loan to refinance older debt at a higher interest rate. VRL, which is the group's holding company, is also looking to sell part of its 63.71 per cent stake in the Indian listed subsidiary Vedanta Ltd to meet funding requirements, said a banker close to the development.
'Focus on 19,400/64,900 as the key resistance levels for the Nifty/Sensex.'
Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) traded 2 per cent higher at Rs 2,310.10 on the BSE in intra-day trade in an otherwise volatile market after the company reported a 27.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in its consolidated net profit at Rs 17,394 crore for the September quarter (Q2FY24). While revenue growth of the company was flattish YoY at Rs 2.32 trillion, the profit rose on the back of operational improvement across most segments, especially higher profits in the O2C (oil-to-chemicals) and oil & gas businesses, as well as the retail business. "Strong operational and financial contribution from all business segments has helped Reliance deliver another quarter of robust growth," said Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of the company.
Foreign banks and private credit funds are queuing up to fund acquisitions by Indian companies who are buying out their local rivals. The Adani Group, Torrent Group, and the Hindujas have approached several foreign banks and private equity (PE) firms to fund their acquisitions. Global investors have about $2 trillion of funds to invest, and about $100 to $150 billion is set aside for India, according to an estimate by JP Morgan.
'Historically, equities have consistently outperformed debt, gold, property, and other assets over a reasonable period.'
Capital expenditure by Indian companies is likely to see an uptick in the upcoming quarters as capacity utilisation has surpassed the critical threshold of 75 per cent, and numerous companies have deleveraged their balance sheets, according to analysts. The first quarter of the current financial year has shown improved profitability, driven by a decrease in input prices. This, according to analysts at Care Ratings, should stimulate a revival in the private capex cycle.
Global financial markets are not yet fully factoring in any escalation in the Israel-Palestine geopolitical conflict, said Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest weekly note to investors, GREED & fear. The pertinent point about ongoing events in West Asia from a financial market perspective, according to him, is that, despite much talk about a pending ground invasion of Gaza, no such invasion has yet happened. "This is beginning to make GREED & fear wonder if it is ever going to happen.
The top 25 global technology (tech) firms, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tencent, Samsung, Oracle, and Accenture, collectively lost over $600 billion in market capitalisation (m-cap) during the July-September quarter (third quarter, or Q3) of calendar year 2023 (CY23), reveals a recent report by GlobalData, a London-based analytics and consulting company.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
The Hinduja group is learnt to be looking at alternative means of financing, including private credit, to fund its Rs 9,661 crore all-cash offer to acquire Reliance Capital. The regulator, Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (Irdai), had earlier rejected the collateral offered by the group to raise funds. The Hinduja group was in talks with Barclays, JPMorgan, Cerberus Capital Management and Apollo Global Management to raise up to $850 million.
Corporate India is busy restructuring - through mergers, demergers and splits. That seems to be the new normal as CXOs and boards brainstorm on how to create assets and value. The pitch rose significantly during the third quarter of this financial year (FY24), translating into $32.9-billion worth of such deals - the highest quarterly total since the HDFC Bank-HDFC merger announced in FY22 Q2.
Indian lenders are unlikely to clear the vertical split of BSE-listed Vedanta Ltd in a hurry, considering that the demerger would reduce the fungibility of cash flows across businesses and increase their volatility, according to analysts. The demerger plan, which would result in six separate listed entities, would require approval from shareholders, lenders and other statutory bodies. "We believe that a separate listing of different businesses would reduce the fungibility of cash flows across businesses and increase the volatility of cash flows.
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
Analysts assert that Vedanta Group's plan to demerge India-listed Vedanta Limited into six listed entities will not resolve the debt problem of its promoter entity, Vedanta Resources (VRL). They suggest that additional asset sales or stake sales by promoters will be necessary to repay the debt. Vedanta is already considering the divestment of its iron-steel division and its copper plant.
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